Sounds logical, but then, as they say, to each his own in trade. Someone will have to wait for a confirmation signal and access conservative trades as to not have to lose tired because of one mistake, and someone will be more aggressive to trade, as you rely on fundamental analysis, which I do not use in trade, if only to confirm their theories, based on technical analysis. If you look at the monthly chart, Contratrend was right and probably now will start a longer-term downtrend to 7.20.
USD/SEK
- Автор темы Forkon
- Дата начала
Welcome! Yes, I would like that it is, but sometimes the market turns against you )) But as far as there, at least everything goes according to plan, as mentioned earlier, the formation of "Smiling bears" )) waves price fell ... he made a double bottom, then the price rose and fell in waves and then after LP price falls sharply, in this structure, the complexity in one, "We never know what value will he PL". And so, the price went down and the first reserve, well the approximate level 8.8588 up to a point impossible to say, but overall.. look at the global shorts. I could be wrong, we mirrored the level 9.0325 Duma under this level at the time of the stop forming a flat and we continue to sell, as I see on H1 chart we have a small double top was formed, Duma is a good sign. Alarming one.. the beginning of a new month, how open ? after all, there are gepy )) and the tail of a new bar for the month should be, where will not know, Korce it's the lyrics )) I put CELA.
Look what have today on the daily chart:
The price is not just broke the last resistance at the Fibo, but fixated on him. So now the next strong "soprotivlenye" is the previous maximum, and it is in the area of 9.45. So the technique seems pretty straightforward..
Look at the Foundation. Just copy from a more knowledgeable source from Denmark, they're closer to Sweden, "they know better":
We need to talk about the SEK. As I said in today's edition of the Morning Call, the weakening of the Swedish Krona becomes very apparent and require attention relative to the U.S. dollar reached a new low in 2016 (another 2% from the current level of 9.26, and will 9,44 – the highest level since 2002), and against the Euro only a couple of percent to multi-year low.
We focused on very low relative cost of SEK and assessed the efforts of the Riksbank to begin normalization before ECB meeting (which is now stronger than the need to turn back toward accommodative policy). But the economic situation in Sweden it is not suitable for the normalization policy of the Riksbank: Sweden and SEK are traditionally considered to be particularly dependent on the Eurozone economy, and now, a painful condition of the EU economy faces even more severe disease for the economy of Sweden.
As a result of these problems, the Swedish housing market has shifted to a clear fall before, the Riksbank will raise the interest rate above zero, and the credit cycle will inevitably enter a phase of compression, and control over Bank lending will worsen in connection with the state of the housing market. Consumer lending is also slowing rapidly, with 5.5% growth year-on-year after a peak in 2016 about 8%, and in 2012 Sweden had managed to slip into a technical recession when this figure was quite positive of 4.5%. And the demand for loans to fall further as the loss of confidence in economic prospects and the value of assets in the real estate sector.
In short, the Riksbank is in a bad position: Sweden is the only country in the world, has created a huge bubble in the housing market against the background of negative interest rates and only recently completed quantitative easing. He can blame only himself, because his current policy is an overcorrection made in 2010-2011, aggressive attempts to get away from okolonosovyh interest rates. Then he twelve months have increased the rate from 0.25% to 2.0%.
The Bank of Sweden simply can not sugarcoat the situation with the normalization of next week on the basis of improved growth prospects or inflation, and the only reason for the Bank continued to support the recovery of rates, is the attention to the risks of a weakening currency and the implications for prices. It will have to sacrifice economic growth. Merciless situation on the real estate market of Sweden will cause a big blow to the economy of the country. So, the Bank of Sweden, what would you choose? Stable currency and hard recession or soft policy, which could lead to further devaluation of the SEK, but it makes recession less severe? I suspect that the Riksbank will choose the currency, before the economy collapses. Anyway, the signals from the Riksbank next week will be very important – the market will catch on any comments on the crown.
USDSEK pair explores a quite remarkable local territory above the previous intraday highs and far above the highest weekly closing cycle. Note that the release of these highs also frees levels above the highs of the world financial market and the highest level since 2002. Given the dilemma facing the Bank of Sweden, about which we said above, in the near future not seen the prospects for the "ceiling" if the Riksbank will signal that he is happy to let the currency to support the country's economy with the risks associated with the weakening external Outlook.
I personally have learned from the mentioned above: not all is well in the economy of Sweden, as I fancied myself much earlier.. Swedish hot guys still run into their own "housing bubble" as it was in the US in 2008. As hardy writes, then you need to either leave immediately in a tough recession, or "pull the cat by the balls" as much as possible, but "collapse" all the same not to avoid. Conclusion: it does not say, but the crown still cheaper on. But there is a fat plus for the Swedes - when cheap the crown, they have an advantage not only in the EU but also in the world.
Summary: to sell the crown until the previous highs on the pair 9.44, and then - "as the stars will fall". They can otkorektirovat to the South due to the possible weakening of the dollar, if after February 15 shutdown in the US continues. My opinion..
The price is not just broke the last resistance at the Fibo, but fixated on him. So now the next strong "soprotivlenye" is the previous maximum, and it is in the area of 9.45. So the technique seems pretty straightforward..
Look at the Foundation. Just copy from a more knowledgeable source from Denmark, they're closer to Sweden, "they know better":
We need to talk about the SEK. As I said in today's edition of the Morning Call, the weakening of the Swedish Krona becomes very apparent and require attention relative to the U.S. dollar reached a new low in 2016 (another 2% from the current level of 9.26, and will 9,44 – the highest level since 2002), and against the Euro only a couple of percent to multi-year low.
We focused on very low relative cost of SEK and assessed the efforts of the Riksbank to begin normalization before ECB meeting (which is now stronger than the need to turn back toward accommodative policy). But the economic situation in Sweden it is not suitable for the normalization policy of the Riksbank: Sweden and SEK are traditionally considered to be particularly dependent on the Eurozone economy, and now, a painful condition of the EU economy faces even more severe disease for the economy of Sweden.
As a result of these problems, the Swedish housing market has shifted to a clear fall before, the Riksbank will raise the interest rate above zero, and the credit cycle will inevitably enter a phase of compression, and control over Bank lending will worsen in connection with the state of the housing market. Consumer lending is also slowing rapidly, with 5.5% growth year-on-year after a peak in 2016 about 8%, and in 2012 Sweden had managed to slip into a technical recession when this figure was quite positive of 4.5%. And the demand for loans to fall further as the loss of confidence in economic prospects and the value of assets in the real estate sector.
In short, the Riksbank is in a bad position: Sweden is the only country in the world, has created a huge bubble in the housing market against the background of negative interest rates and only recently completed quantitative easing. He can blame only himself, because his current policy is an overcorrection made in 2010-2011, aggressive attempts to get away from okolonosovyh interest rates. Then he twelve months have increased the rate from 0.25% to 2.0%.
The Bank of Sweden simply can not sugarcoat the situation with the normalization of next week on the basis of improved growth prospects or inflation, and the only reason for the Bank continued to support the recovery of rates, is the attention to the risks of a weakening currency and the implications for prices. It will have to sacrifice economic growth. Merciless situation on the real estate market of Sweden will cause a big blow to the economy of the country. So, the Bank of Sweden, what would you choose? Stable currency and hard recession or soft policy, which could lead to further devaluation of the SEK, but it makes recession less severe? I suspect that the Riksbank will choose the currency, before the economy collapses. Anyway, the signals from the Riksbank next week will be very important – the market will catch on any comments on the crown.
USDSEK pair explores a quite remarkable local territory above the previous intraday highs and far above the highest weekly closing cycle. Note that the release of these highs also frees levels above the highs of the world financial market and the highest level since 2002. Given the dilemma facing the Bank of Sweden, about which we said above, in the near future not seen the prospects for the "ceiling" if the Riksbank will signal that he is happy to let the currency to support the country's economy with the risks associated with the weakening external Outlook.
I personally have learned from the mentioned above: not all is well in the economy of Sweden, as I fancied myself much earlier.. Swedish hot guys still run into their own "housing bubble" as it was in the US in 2008. As hardy writes, then you need to either leave immediately in a tough recession, or "pull the cat by the balls" as much as possible, but "collapse" all the same not to avoid. Conclusion: it does not say, but the crown still cheaper on. But there is a fat plus for the Swedes - when cheap the crown, they have an advantage not only in the EU but also in the world.
Summary: to sell the crown until the previous highs on the pair 9.44, and then - "as the stars will fall". They can otkorektirovat to the South due to the possible weakening of the dollar, if after February 15 shutdown in the US continues. My opinion..
Hi Oleg Leonidas
. Thanks for sharing the idea. Fundamental analysis is interesting to read, but to trade him I won't, too much, these analysts say, and the price of them does not want to hear
.
Not sure it's higher high, but if you look at the time frame and to deliver the level, you can see that all the tails until after level. Can be correction only for today scheduled, but if not, then this would be a perfect entry point, if not for the pin bar, which for my perfect picture would have to be bearish. Now I see two options where you can revert. If formed by the end of the day, bearish engulfing, it is very likely that we will go nige.
Not sure it's higher high, but if you look at the time frame and to deliver the level, you can see that all the tails until after level. Can be correction only for today scheduled, but if not, then this would be a perfect entry point, if not for the pin bar, which for my perfect picture would have to be bearish. Now I see two options where you can revert. If formed by the end of the day, bearish engulfing, it is very likely that we will go nige.
On the hourly chart, the currency pair USD/SEK is in a narrow channel between the support level 9,2432 and the resistance 9,2682 actively trying to break through the upper border of the channel. Indicator RSI moved below 50. The makd indicator signals the completion of the upward movement in prices but continues to maintain its direction. On the H4 MACD has left the area of sales and this means that you can emergency small correction.
I personally only look Foundation priority direction of the pair. The Foundation does not give a point of entry/exit. I take it that is the direction in which direction to trade would be safer where the price will definitely come back if suddenly something goes "against me." Within a day you can trade in any direction. That's what TC its developed and proven by personal experience.
Here I did it this morning on the Foundation that the previous Haev low, and now technique on the H4 is the full statement that the price will go higher as there is consolidation with all ratestake strong resistance, which has now become strong support. And stand up in the sale for possible lows in the forecast for further growth consider a few is not reasonable. And that's all.)) My opinion..
Here I did it this morning on the Foundation that the previous Haev low, and now technique on the H4 is the full statement that the price will go higher as there is consolidation with all ratestake strong resistance, which has now become strong support. And stand up in the sale for possible lows in the forecast for further growth consider a few is not reasonable. And that's all.)) My opinion..
Contrary to my expectations USD/SEK last week has made an incredible leap to new heights. Has broken through the resistance line 9,2450 and now intends to consolidate above this level. Maybe the plan will succeed. Do not exclude growth of prices to the heights of December 2016. There can already connect the line resistance, deployed in March 2009. So we will wait for the South rolled back around 9,3500-9,4000 USD/SEK.
Hi all!
Oleg Leonidas, the Foundation needed for those who something understands it, and I do not understand it. Me to trade easier when I have a clear plan of where I will be able to put a stop and where I see that it is time to close the deal. Technical analysis gives me enough. I'm still on this pair stick to what will be a correction if not reversal. Opened the sale, put a stop above the weekly high, and take profit have not yet decided where I will put, but an exact multiple of stopa.
Oleg Leonidas, the Foundation needed for those who something understands it, and I do not understand it. Me to trade easier when I have a clear plan of where I will be able to put a stop and where I see that it is time to close the deal. Technical analysis gives me enough. I'm still on this pair stick to what will be a correction if not reversal. Opened the sale, put a stop above the weekly high, and take profit have not yet decided where I will put, but an exact multiple of stopa.
Malades!!! What you and congratulations!
I have a technique on the H4 will now be cut to 9,1450 to start, and ideally all in 9,1090:
Yes there is, and to understand is nothing special.. If you really stupid, you take the country, the currency pair which you trade, and look at the state of their economy, risks, strengths and weaknesses, the latest news from these States (preferably in banking) and decide for yourself who outweigh in the short/medium and long-term trading. Depends on what period you plan to hold the position.. something like that.)))
My opinion..
I have a technique on the H4 will now be cut to 9,1450 to start, and ideally all in 9,1090:
Yes there is, and to understand is nothing special.. If you really stupid, you take the country, the currency pair which you trade, and look at the state of their economy, risks, strengths and weaknesses, the latest news from these States (preferably in banking) and decide for yourself who outweigh in the short/medium and long-term trading. Depends on what period you plan to hold the position.. something like that.)))
My opinion..
Thank you for the congratulations, thanks, just know anything I make, profit I have not yet committed, and uncommitted profit, is consider it is not.
On trade, for me it would be perfect if the price would lower yours to about 8.45-8.50, but I'm not sure I'll be up to the mark to keep as a minimum three to four months, the important thing is not to go there or not. While the current one set at 8.65 and I don't know, I'll move him to the 23.6 Fibonacci level or will hold.
I wrote the post and opened another deal, only I did not work out with the trend, prentise, but I will say this that it was justified, price stop level and I'm at the very top have sold. Now I have two trades on prodazhu.
I told you Oleg Leonidis write that logic I'm not very good
. I find it easier to find the level and trade it looking like there is the price next to it. You well, you in the direction of the head works well.
On trade, for me it would be perfect if the price would lower yours to about 8.45-8.50, but I'm not sure I'll be up to the mark to keep as a minimum three to four months, the important thing is not to go there or not. While the current one set at 8.65 and I don't know, I'll move him to the 23.6 Fibonacci level or will hold.
I wrote the post and opened another deal, only I did not work out with the trend, prentise, but I will say this that it was justified, price stop level and I'm at the very top have sold. Now I have two trades on prodazhu.
I told you Oleg Leonidis write that logic I'm not very good
Krona yesterday formed a clear reversal signal as a pin bar off support, which is located on 9.2012. The merger of the two signals indicates a high probability of promoting prices up. Today you can take in the work of Danil a couple and keep a reference to a purchase with the purpose of the passage price up to the resistance level which is located on 9.4470. Watch point of entry and trade towards the North.
Yesterday's attack buyers of USD/SEK - the attempt to win back the level of local purchases 9.1927. At the same time, the bulls had a minimal result and quotes closed slightly above the previous closing day. Despite the fact that the interest of Williams rushed up, our assumptions are as follows: quotations will continue to fall from the current level 9.2713 to break down the level of bullish support 9.1927.
On the screen 4 hours clearly shows that bullish attack on the Japanese yen did not bring the bulls a decent result and prices have not gone above the level of bullish resistance 9.3063. So the bulls at current levels the weak and the bears will take the initiative of the offensive.
On the screen 4 hours clearly shows that bullish attack on the Japanese yen did not bring the bulls a decent result and prices have not gone above the level of bullish resistance 9.3063. So the bulls at current levels the weak and the bears will take the initiative of the offensive.
Have stopped the transaction for the sale at a loss. Oleg Leonidas was right, and fundamental analysis works. Not yet learned how to more accurately determine the turn on currency pairs. Turning in purchase to 9.3378 and set the take profit, there will wait for reversal of the pair. The us dollar is likely to strengthen after a short will deshevet.
Here, "human/not human" is not necessary.))) We're not cocks face off, and share my thoughts to hear another opinion, to think in this direction. If I was always right, we would live already in Goa with my laptop and not think about their daily bread.)))
I also goes to senior halves that all over again for the North a purely technical picture. On the daily is still stuck on the level:
And on a week-long southern campaign was a mere shadow, which can be computed in a "carry-out stops of buyers":
The Foundation for the pair I have at this moment only one component: Yes, the dollar will be cheaper, but not yet in the pair, as the "independent currency" of the EU countries are now experiencing strong pressure due to internal problems of the EU, the upcoming hard Brakcet and positions of the national Central Bank the depreciation of the national currency. So I think that next week/two/three a few is safer to buy. At least until the previous Haya, which supports and resistance. have determined that it is in the area of 9.45..
Of course I buy when steam and so close to the medium-term highs, but if to wait for something, everything interesting will be without us. My opinion..
I also goes to senior halves that all over again for the North a purely technical picture. On the daily is still stuck on the level:
And on a week-long southern campaign was a mere shadow, which can be computed in a "carry-out stops of buyers":
The Foundation for the pair I have at this moment only one component: Yes, the dollar will be cheaper, but not yet in the pair, as the "independent currency" of the EU countries are now experiencing strong pressure due to internal problems of the EU, the upcoming hard Brakcet and positions of the national Central Bank the depreciation of the national currency. So I think that next week/two/three a few is safer to buy. At least until the previous Haya, which supports and resistance. have determined that it is in the area of 9.45..
Of course I buy when steam and so close to the medium-term highs, but if to wait for something, everything interesting will be without us. My opinion..
The crown has failed to break through the resistance. Last Thursday and Friday the price for this pair was down. Today on this pair a priority for trade purchases as a reversal pattern formed from the support level remains in force. Waiting for retry rates of passage down, and after re-formation reversal setup you can consider options for shopping, if I have missed the entrance.
Hi Oleg Leonidas
. And you is a prude, but shouldn't be modest, you were right. I just recognized my mistake and pointed out who was right.
They're great, some were cleaned up and about the other forgot. As under communism gave to all equally!
And yet again, I revised my opinion and will again advocate for the southern direction, as it is I currently feel is most relevant. Especially if you will break the trend linio.
They're great, some were cleaned up and about the other forgot. As under communism gave to all equally!
Well, here it is. High, the pair managed to catch the North of 9.41... Think about the North can be forgotten. The pulse was weak CPI of Sweden, which only showed General weakness of the economy of the Swedes, but today the whole game will focus on the U.S. dollar. Namely, the Protocols of the fed. Of course, the market already seemed to have agreed that the fed will not raise rates soon, but the "control shot" in the direction of a rate increase has not yet sounded. And if today these are still rassuzhdenij, be greenback rollback on all fronts. If not a trend, then certainly the pulse accurately. I personally think so. Therefore, sell-orders are now much safer shopping pair. I personally think so..
Hi all! Oleg Leonidio, something I no response I see. On one account I still have open sales, and bonus account denominated unfortunately I again merged, but this is not due to the fact that I was not right with the sales, but because of too high load on it. On bonus account until the Swedish crown no action will not do, I'm not sure that the southern route will last very long. If it is serious there is some evidence, and wait until the price will be on 9.0393 and 8.9640. But maybe your option srabotat.
On the crown of thoughts the following. Crown just the day before yesterday shot almost touched the key resistance, located on 9.4470. Because yesterday candle is much declined, after the bullish movement up and formed a reversal candlestick combination at the confluence with a key level that clearly demonstrates a weakening of the bulls, today we take a wait and waiting for corrective movement down with reference to 9.1830.
I have the Swedish Krona did not go so high up that shows me the high of this pin bar, it 9.4141. Although it's not about that, I think, what's an ordinary typo. Now there was a rollback and I are considering a four-hour timeframe. The movement on it to the North stopped and if we see the current candle is bearish, then you can safely will embark on the South. Levels of take profit I wrote above, stop loss above Hai this movement would Stavila.