USD/UAH

Stochastician

Member
11.04.2016
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At the weekend a strengthening of the hryvnia continued. In the cash market quotes dropped to the level 26,55/UAH 26.6. for U.S. dollars, approaching the "psychological" (if you will) level at 26.5 UAH. for dollars.



Despite the significant depreciation of the dollar, the NBU on the market last week did not come out. However, his exit next week is very anticipated.
 

Stochastician

Member
11.04.2016
113
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Tuesday cash dollar continued significant decrease, reaching marks 26,35/26,40 UAH. for U.S. dollars, updating the lows of the year. The rate of decline, thus, in recent years amounted to about 10 cents a day. On the Interbank market, the dollar was trading a little above the level of UAH 26.6. Today, the NBU bought foreign currency in the market totaling around $ 45 million. Yesterday's purchase was approximately $ 50 million.
 

Stochastician

Member
11.04.2016
113
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The hryvnia earlier this week strengthened on the spot market to levels 26,20/26,25 UAH. for U.S. dollars, increase the gap between the interbank market up to 30 cents. Today there was some "rollback" in quotes, and the cash market, the hryvnia was trading close to UAH 26.3. for dollars. In the interbank market observed quotes near 26,55-26,60 UAH. for U.S. dollars, in conditions of approximate equilibrium in the market.
 

Stochastician

Member
11.04.2016
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Last week, the NBU was actively buying the dollar on the Interbank market, although, despite this, the hryvnia exchange rate is still rapidly strengthened, particularly in the cash market. The purchase was conducted in three sessions of five that took place last week. Just bought about $ 125 million. It can be expected that at the end of April, the volume of Ukraine's international reserves exceed 17 billion. what would be the maximum value since the end of June 2014.
 

DenisOpanasenkoUA

New member
01.12.2015
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It's certainly something with something... a Dollar at UAH 26.40! In Ukraine, one can only say that Ukraine is in a big hole of economy... the Price will drop to 25.50 hryvnia for one dollar, but as soon as the price drops, then just have to wait, or the price will hold at this level or go back up and with it very high go!
 

ForexAnalitic

Well-known member
08.03.2015
586
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16
USD / UAH shows neither the daily chart downward movement ,but it is unlikely that it can be continued below the support level located at around 26,2500 from this level and should consider a buy trade with profit in the amount of about 3000-5000 points of profit in the medium-term trade ,as the growth on this pair will definitely be.
 

Marit

Member
24.02.2011
134
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Technical analysis 1 hour chart of the pair and the MACD indicator. Price pair there is trading in this sideways movement. The MACD is trading sideways at the level of the middle line. Down on the prices a benchmark shadow of a candle on the 26th, upstairs at the prices are reference point - resistance, major MA.
 

ForexAnalitic

Well-known member
08.03.2015
586
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16
Currency USD / UAH continues its decline and is now trading near its important support level located at around 26,1000, which will determine the future of the pair ,if this level is broken, the pair will fall to the level 25,6500, if breaking will not be the pair closes above the level 26,1000, you will rise to the level of 26.3500.
 

Marit

Member
24.02.2011
134
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0
Technical analysis 1 hour chart of the pair and the MACD and Stochastic. Price pair there is trading within the angle formed by two trend lines of support and resistance. The MACD is trading sideways at the level of the middle line. Option, the continuation of flat and the direction to the upper side corner.
 

Aleks5520

Member
30.05.2016
56
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Very strange statement to be honest. We can say that except you this statement is not shared by the experts. The hryvnia may strengthen to three years, and may 27 to go, at least the course in 27 more favorable for the commodity economy. But I still think that the rate at 24.5 is much more likely than 27. In this case, the hole in the economy 2 years ago, how was. Compare last year's figures and this and forecasts for the next, not a single drop year-on-year you will not see.
 

Alexey68

New member
20.09.2011
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For the commodity economy, and correctly export-oriented economy-indeed, the national currency artificially understate sometimes. But Ukraine is a different situation! She is too dependent on critical imports( without which it is simply impossible to exist) - oil, gas, nuclear fuel, and now coal! It's not just iPhones and Mercedes -- it's just not possible to live! And all of this costs currency! And here are the countries and needs to be a balance in the national currency -- that would and exporters have been profitable and that the import was by means of! And Ukraine killed almost the entire export industry, as the main markets were Russia and other CIS countries. It remains only to agricultural raw materials, metal( which is also a problem) and even just the ore out. And all this does not cover the purchase of essential imports. Even the remittances of migrant workers stabilized in the fall and winter the balance of payments. And therefore, without the next portion of the loans -- NBU will not be able to hold the course.
 

Aleks5520

Member
30.05.2016
56
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I have to be honest, the impression that the exchange rate will be artificially underestimated, as the following years laid in the course of 27-25 hryvnia per dollar, and the IMF estimates the estimated rate for the next three years beyond 25,6-25-24,5 respectively. And about the murdered exports, one only metal, if you go back to price of 2008, export revenues will grow by 40 percent. Grain yields in the next 5 years will grow at twice the pace of growth and the pace of investment in the industry, also within five years the country will cease to purchase gas brand, is the huge difference in foreign exchange earnings today. Will have to artificially reduce the torque, while this new year, apparently with the course in 27 will meet.
 

Alexey68

New member
20.09.2011
7
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I mythology not want to discuss! Nowhere Ukraine is not going anywhere and will purchase the petroleum products( crude oil have almost no buys -- the plants are!), gas( even Russian, though American!), nuclear fuel( though Russian, though American!) and even coal. The production of the metal itself fell -- with the loss of Donbass. And in Russia had supplied raw material and engineering products, milk, other food, etc was covered! And that was almost 30% of total exports. The decline in purchases of gas etc. was not due to the fact that they began to work more effectively, and because consumption fell by industry! The chemical industry is, and it consumes a lot of gas as the raw material for her! But it almost completely covers the needs of the domestic market, as well as bring foreign exchange earnings much more than was required for the purchase of imported gas for her. Now there is a growing use of imported chemical products. And so everywhere! NBU has maintained the exchange rate of the national currency at the expense of their reserves already -- where are the bulk of liabilities to creditors. There is practically "free" money( in gold reserves). That is why now so concerned that the next tranche of the IMF( he is given the NBU to maintain the exchange rate of the national currency, and not for "economic development"). But in the fall and winter dramatically increases the demand for imported energy is reduced of foreign currency proceeds, and fit another timing of payments on the loan. In such situation, the NBU is not about "special" reduced rate, to think, and Vice versa -- that would be cheaper to buy of the currency by the government for the purchase of energy. The hryvnia rate will depend on the next tranche of the IMF.
 

Aleks5520

Member
30.05.2016
56
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You're talking about reluctance to comment on mythology, so I'll have have to do what NBU all this time its gold reserves held course nothing else would call, the first auction for the sale of $ 20 million, the NBU held in September, for the first year. And all the other nuances you mentioned has long been considered a course, made no sense to support the hryvnia is already at 27, but it became stronger and stronger. But on account of repayment of loans, then you are right, this year without the IMF tranche, the hryvnia will significantly swing.
 

Alexey68

New member
20.09.2011
7
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What does the auctions? You just look at the statistics of the NBU -- it is not a secret! And there is no one trying something to stir up, as the lenders do not understand! So, the national Bank regularly goes to the interbank market and sells the currency-so it was all these years in the autumn-winter period. And look at the structure of gold reserves. The total amount of gold reserves( so propagandists like to use) has not changed since 2013( not much sank!), but the structure and shows that the lion's share now be "frozen" liabilities to creditors! That is, they seem to have balance, but cannot be used! And about the "mythology" I was only talking about the one that allegedly Ukraine will soon refuse from gas! That is the mythology of the advocates of this power. Let's discuss real things, not wishlist such "clever men" as paruby and other *****that. The national currency depends( formed) from the demand and supply of foreign currency on the interbank market. And the NBU's always there( and indeed any Central Bank in any country of the world!), if he does not intervene( or rather to buy up the excess supply of foreign currency), we would each day, these races would have seen that Mama do not cry! We are not Germany, not Japan and not even Russia. We objecti small and therefore the first serious demand( e.g. Naftogaz), or Vice versa, the revenue thrown out by Metinvest -- would throw the torque in different directions! That's all, and smooths out the Central Bank. And in recent years such "smoothing" the NBU has brought the structure of its reserves in such a condition. Although it's not his fault! Just then, the NBU can even praise-as he gets out in such a situation. But what they have done in the economy -- will put pressure on the hryvnia.
 

Aleks5520

Member
30.05.2016
56
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Well, I to the propagandists of the authorities to not put it clearly, I'm the opposite of a fanatical enemy, but the mythology of the propagandists vsepropalschikov also do not perceive. We're not talking about the fact that NBU is not present at the auction, we say that this year foreign exchange intervention to strengthen the hryvnia was introduced in September. The furious growth of silos, unprecedented in the history of independence, the estimated doubling exports in the next five years you forgot to mention, and this is the main export item of the country, the import of gas not even funny, even recently consumed 50 billion cubic meters a year, now 28, the loss of gas consumption by industry. 8bn. CBM prospects in the coming five years plus 7 in mining and minus three in consumption. But their attitude to power, I don't need to tell you I don't like it more than you, we about other things talk. And it turns out I'm talking about what the course will and you tell me about what he was. Once again, at the moment, the only important destabilizing factor for the hryvnia is debt repayment, and if not issued tranche of the hryvnia will fall is a fact and is objective, but the fact that the volume of purchases of gas fell because of the decline in production does not affect the rate, this factor has long been priced in.
 

Alexey68

New member
20.09.2011
7
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You personally-I promoters are not recorded! I specifically said-those whom I believe! The factor of falling demand for gas from industry-not played. He will operate continuously. Saving on foreign exchange costs from reduced purchases of gas -- much less than the loss of foreign exchange earnings from this industry. What you're talking about the sale of grain -- it's a small thing really. And it not as does not cover the deficit. Just always in the summer( traditionally in Ukraine) decreases the demand for the currency. But with the beginning of autumn the demand begins to increase -- for quite natural reasons. Before time and "forgot to stock up" and smoothed that the seasonality of low demand( for grain and metal in the winter), offset by the "all-weather" performance of the export industries( engineering, chemical industry, etc.) -- now it is not. Also, there is no investment. Therefore, the balance of payments is negative. This is what affects the pressure on the hryvnia. And smooth out that IMF loans. Now the NBU is likely to be slow to allow the hryvnia to fall -- that's right! And if you get the tranche, it stabilizes it somewhere at 27-28. If the tranche is not, then the fall could accelerate. Or will is strengthened to reduce any imports, further tightening cross-border movement of capital, etc.
 

Aleks5520

Member
30.05.2016
56
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We probably live on different planets. I just don't understand how a doubling of grain exports may be a trifle, with the fall of the price of metal, the agriculture sector became the locomotive of the economy and inflow of foreign currency, 10 000 000 000 dollars a year after all, according to the forecasts of all foreign investors invest now at a rapid pace hundreds of millions of dollars logistics and granaries, in the next five years this amount will increase to two, not in any other industry in the country is not invested foreign holdings in agrologistika, did they not count your money and throw the money? Economic growth also for the next five years has not been canceled, even the staunchest skeptics. Okay, so we can enumerate the factors influencing the course, I have one opinion, you have more, I heard it, but I still wanted to I was right, everyone will benefit from it. I think you also want to be good and not Vice versa. Good luck in trading!